QB Draft Values

Oakland Raiders Quarterback Derek Carr throws a pass
Photo By U.S. Air Force/Louis Briscese – 180807-F-LI975-0295, Public Domain, Link

Unlike the stock market, past performance of quarter backs in fantasy football is a predictor of future outcomes.  There are several QBs currently going above or below their value in fantasy drafts based on 2017’s numbers.

Consistent scoring week to week is where QBs are valuable in fantasy. I like having that position locked on a 15 point average in order to spend my waivers or trades on other positions. Lets look past some of the preseason hype, and let the data show some interesting outliers that could matter on your roster.

By the numbers

The chart below plots 2017 QB fantasy points and their correlated 2018 average draft position gathered from Fantasy Pros.

Player2017 FF Points2018 ADP
Tom Brady295.943
Russell Wilson347.949
Cam Newton299.556
Drew Brees262.662
Carson Wentz281.768
Kirk Cousins277.681
Matthew Stafford273.696
Ben Roethlisberger260.798
Matt Ryan228.1102
Philip Rivers270.4103
Jared Goff255.3107
Marcus Mariota210.5133
Derek Carr206.4135
Alex Smith295.2136
Dak Prescott260.7138
Blake Bortles249.7194
Case Keenum237.9205
Tyrod Taylor222.7219
Andy Dalton210.7222

Too High (Too expensive at current ADP)

Aaron Rodgers isn’t on the list given his injury skews his numbers for last season. At #24 ADP, I don’t see how Rodgers is worth it that high in the draft given his favorite receiver, Jordy Nelson, is gone.

Because Alex Smith had a great 2017 in FF points, it may seem like his ADP is too low. Keep in mind, he’s on a new team. Smith no longer has the offensive weapons like Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill to throw to. He may be consistent, but his surrounding talent in Washington will not be this season.

Marcus Mariota, Andy Dalton, and Tyrod Taylor may look like their draft position is about right, but the numbers don’t add up. Each of them had at least 3 games below 10 fantasy points.

About Right (Probably worth it)

At nearly 350 FF points last season, Russell Wilson is obviously worth his #49 ADP.  Carr’s position is just about right for where he is going in fantasy drafts.  I’m not sold on Amari Cooper week to week, which is probably why the Raiders brought in Nelson to give Derek Carr more passing options.

Phillip Rivers is Mr. Consistent with fewer than 2 games below 10 FF points last season.  Rivers is surrounded by talent this year and throws relatively few interceptions (10 in 2017) among top 20 QBs. He is probably worth drafting at his current #103 ADP.

Matt Ryan will have a better 2018 than last year’s total points would indicate. He is on a loaded offense, and it seems like the right spot at #102.

Too Low (Good value at current ADP)

I’m not a Cowboys fan, but I like Dak Prescott in FF. I think he’ll have a better year than anyone expects.  With an offensive line that is still one of the best in the NFL, he should have time in the pocket to develop rapport with some of his new sleeper receiving weapons I’ve mentioned before.

Jared Goff had a great rookie season and with the surrounding talent and coaching of Sean McVay, he stands to have even better numbers in 2018 and should be probably be going higher than #107.

Blake Bortles has more reasons to hope now than ever. The Jaguars are loaded on offense and he should improve in passing and fewer interceptions.

Case Keenum surprised everyone last year, and thus far in the preseason has shown he carry it over to a new team. Like the Vikings, the Broncos strong defense will give him off the field and remove some scoring pressure.

While not mentioned in this data, keep an eye out for Teddy Bridgewater on waivers in 2018. The Jets will surely trade him after his preseason showing.  Wherever he lands, he’ll make a great backup option and a decent FF QB should the opportunity arise.